China as a Superpower

INTRODUCTION

The history of China is both fascinating and complex. Its culture has been described as both peaceful and warlike. China was created by conquest and has essentially been ruled by a series of warlords. However, China has also experienced periods of peace and active trade with its neighbors. There have also been extensive periods where China isolated itself from outside influence and became a closed society. These experiences have profoundly shaped Chinese culture and strategic thought. [3]

The last century has been extremely difficult for China. The occupation by the Japanese in the 1930s and 1940s and the civil war, which brought Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to power in 1949, were extremely turbulent times in China's history. From this civil war the People's Republic of China (PRC) emerged. However, this was the beginning of another period of isolation where China attempted to revitalize itself. Under Mao, China was successful in becoming self-sufficient in nearly all resources and technologies, however, it was twenty to thirty years behind modern technical standards.[4]

Following Mao's death in 1976, the new leader, Deng Xiaoping, commenced a series of reforms that radically changed China. Deng encouraged international trade and allowed foreign capital investment. The result has been China's phenomenal entry into world markets and a booming economy. The specific aim of these policies was to obtain large foreign exchange earnings, which would allow China to both modernize and become more independent.[5] Following Deng's death in February 1997, the current leader, Jiang Zemin, consolidated his political power base with the completion of the CCP's Fifteenth Congress in September 1997. Under Jiang's leadership it looks like economic reforms will continue, however, there seems to be little prospect for political change. This is exemplified by his call for stricter control of the press.[6]

As China emerges as a global power it is important to understand what role it will play and the security perceptions it has of both Asia and the world. The most important issue for China today is political stability at home. Any attempt to influence the status quo is not welcome and is deemed to be interference in China's internal affairs. Many Chinese believe that the United States represents the core values of Western civilization and is in conflict with Eastern civilization which is represented by China. As a result, Chinese leadership views any American influence as a challenge to China's political stability.[7]

The Western view of China's emergence is mixed. Following a period of condemnation after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, Western countries have sought to normalize relations with China. Canada's policy has been to maximize trade and economic links while adopting a moderate, low-key approach in discussing human rights.[8] US-China relations have been more difficult. However, the US ultimately granted China most-favoured-nation (MFN) trading status and a 1995 decision determined that human rights would be no longer tied to commerce.[9] The issue of China's military modernization has attracted attention. Some analysts believe this modernization is overdue and is just updating old equipment. Others are concerned about the combined effect of this modernization and the assertive nature China has displayed recently concerning claims in the South China Sea and Taiwan.[10]

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that China's economic and military transformation, under the current Communist regime, has the potential to seriously threaten the future security of Canada and the West. The paper will look at both the economic and military reforms underway in China and the strategic direction they are taking. The Western strategic view of China will be presented. Potential problem areas will be investigated to reveal why China may adopt a threatening posture.

CHINESE ECONOMIC REFORMS

The economic reforms that were introduced by Deng Xiaoping in the late seventies have transformed the Chinese economy and produced a period of spectacular growth. China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 9.3 percent between 1979-1993. The world experienced a growth rate of 2.6 percent for the same period. China's GDP has also quadrupled over a period of only fifteen years. It has also improved its status as a trading nation, rising to eleventh position from number thirty-seven in ten years. Another important fact is that China has accumulated a large foreign currency reserve and is second in the world to Japan. China has also taken advantage of foreign investment and is also rated second in the world, after the US. It is important to realize that the above figures do not include any contribution from Hong Kong, which China regained as a possession in July 1997.[11]

While China's performance has been impressive, it also has the potential to maintain this growth. It has a massive population, which represents not only a large domestic market but also a cheap labour source of some eight hundred million people. It is also a country that is blessed with vast natural resources.[12] The current economic problems in Asia have not had a major impact on China, though there are predictions of slower growth.[13] However, it is expected that China will become the world's largest economy, in terms of GDP, by 2010.[14]

CHINESE MILITARY REFORMS

Chinese military strategy underwent a major change in the mid 1980s. The threat of a Soviet land attack had diminished and the attention of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) turned to the threat of regional disputes. Thus, the PLA started to focus on a strategy of limited war. However, with the downturn in relations with the West following the Tiananmen Square massacre, this strategy was revised. The Gulf War also had a significant impact on the Chinese leadership and the conflict was carefully studied. As a result, a new defence strategy emerged, based on fighting modern warfare using advanced technology. The Chinese have learned many lessons from the Gulf War. First, they have realized that electronic warfare and advanced weapons are decisive. They have also learned the importance of strong air and naval power and that rapid response and fast deployment are a true measure of overall capability. Finally, they have realized that logistical support is as important as actual combat capability. These lessons learned have had a profound effect on the PLA's doctrine. First of all, the importance of ground forces has been reduced to allow additional focus on