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CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK

Summarizing our work, we would say that the industrial analysis highlighted some of the future US and global

trends and generated the driving forces for the DMM. US Telecom, according to the macroeconomic indicators

experienced a deep crisis mainly due to the Ð''bubbleÐ'', which is already past. In 2003 the Telecom industry is in a

growth period. The output growth is becoming stronger as advanced technology, for example broadband, VoIP, and

increased competition, lower the prices for high-speed Internet access and cellular services. Deregulation is an

emerging issue that will allow the expansion of residential Telecommunication services offered. In addition,

business demand is expected to rise as companies increasingly rely on new technologies in order to expand,

differentiate, increase their market competitive advantage and globalize their profile. Telecommunications systems

will certainly help them to conduct electronic commerce, services and transactions. The business expansion will be

based more on the technological improvements such as fiber-optic lines and advanced switching equipment

increasing the data transmission capacity of Telecommunications networks instead of the labor status. The

employment will keep declining due to the market restructuring and technology automation issues. The increased

substitution is also another analysis result. The preferences in most of the countries have changed, leaving the

telephony behind and moving towards broadband and wireless services in a Ð''cutting cordÐ'' season. The Telecom Act

is a critical issue that is confusing and holding back the US industryÐ''s expansion. It is also questionable if the Act

has accomplished its purpose. The economic indicators prove that the crisis and the declining numbers came post the

Act.

The contribution of this study is to expresses our first attempt to predict the wireless growth as an dependent

variable seeking for relationships with Economic and Telecom variables. The modeling of the Telecom industry was

successful for both approaches. The quantitative analysis was more important capturing the significant relations

between the wireless, the GDP and the Telecom Act. Both models are strong enough to reveal the complexities of

the Telecom industry as hypothesized. We were able to detect the negative impact of the Telecom Act. The

traditional telephony continues to decline and is helping the wireless growth, only if it is considered as the media to

access the Internet. The excitement is in wireless and future trends the Ð''cutting the cordÐ'' season where the VoIP and

the broadband will dominate the voice and data communications respectively.

In the future we intend to test DMM in other Telecom industries that presented really interesting observations

such as CanadaÐ''s and AustraliaÐ''s and examine its behavior and also expand our research in the Organization for

Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. It is interesting to investigate if the algorithm we tried

to create is still valid in other Telecom industries and examine the driving forces and the DMMÐ''s determinants.

Another challenging case study is Italy, by testing DMM on the Act of 1997 and investigate its impact. Finally, we

aim to test the behavior of other determinants that characterize the Telecom and macroeconomic factors in a

monthly basis. Finally we aim to generate additional scenarios that could be served from the tested models.

Acknowledgement:

Gwyn Aneuryn-Evans (1980). Testing Linear versus Logarithmic Regression Models. Review of Economic Studies, vol 47, issue 1, 275-291.

Hans-Martin Krolzig (2000). Business Cycle Measurement in the Presence of Structural Change: International Evidence. Department of

Economics and Nuffield College, Oxford University.

Harmantzis F. (2004). Inside the Telecom