Egypt Economic and Social Issues

Bread, Water and Birth Control in Egypt

In September 2003, in an interview with Al-Ahram, the Egyptian government newspaper, in response to a question about economic problems with a reference to a current shortage of bread - President Mubarak of Egypt stated, once again, publicly and forcefully that rapid population growth in Egypt was the primary cause of the country's economic and social problems. He added that the country was doing what it could to solve these problems, but that the government could only do so much. Implicit in his announcement was a patriotic call to the people to have smaller families. If the President of Egypt speaks out publicly about population growth, it must be a grave concern of state officials. Indeed, his wife has also made major speeches on the subject. Why are they speaking out and what are the numerous factors influencing the severity of the problem?

In examining Egypt's population trends, birth control efforts, and the very basic problems of sufficient water for agriculture and household use and sufficient bread to feed the population, the question is: What are the ramifications of the present population growth trends in Egypt on water supply and bread supply? Is there truly a population crisis emerging in Egypt?

In Suzanne Mubarak's speech at a youth conference in 2002, she was more blunt that her husband:

"My Sons and Daughters, ...Every newborn on the land of Egypt every thirty seconds means a horrible and rapid population increase that our natural resources or productive energies cannot keep up pace with.... The solution of the problem is not any more confined to the Ministry of Health and Population. It has become the responsibility of the entire society...Youth participation in the awareness campaign...and in the illiteracy-fighting campaign...and the call for widening the base of educating females, especially in the countryside, is of paramount importance...Sustainable development is a means for the fulfillment of human beings welfare and enjoyment of all man's rights...and development is directly affected by the population problem."

In 2003, Egypt's population was estimated at 70 million; it is increasing at the rate of about 1.3 million people every year, or one new Egyptian every 30 seconds. Hosni Mubarak stated in that same interview, "If population growth continues the way it is, we will be 85 million people in ten years and we will not have enough resources." From the days of Nasser, Egypt has been committed to health care and free education for all, as well as subsidizing bread and other critical food products. Mubarak added in reference to bread - "the state will not be able to continue to provide such services with the population growth and we will be forced to impose heavy taxes on citizens, which would cause investors to flee."

Gone are the heady days of 1979 following the Camp David peace agreement with Israel when it was thought that peace and stability would bring economic benefits. Few of those dreams came to fruition and the more recent world paradigm involving terrorism has had a negative impact on development. And although there were, and are, internal constraints such as protective tariffs, policies deterring foreign investment, and structural adjustment policies, and external pressures of regional instability, foreign debt, and imposed SAP policies, the constant population growth has had a negative effect on the economy far outweighing other factors. When a country has increasing numbers of educated citizens for whom there is no employment the results is migration or poverty. (The brain drain exists at all levels of education and money sent home by 3 million Egyptian workers abroad is a major source of foreign exchange. An estimate by the Davis Migration study is $3.2 billion in 1995). In the countryside, poverty encourages families to have more children to assist with family income and in addition poverty creates unhappiness and unrest. Unrest can turn violent as groups or individuals determine to change the structures restricting their ambition for jobs and decent livelihoods. "High fertility can impose costly burdens ...it can hinder economic development, increase health risks for women and children, and erode the quality of life by reducing access to education, nutrition, employment and scarce resources such as water." ("Population Growth in Egypt," Mona Khalifa, Julie DaVanzo, and David M. Adamson, Rand Issue Study, 2000).

For 75 years, Egypt has paid attention to its population growth. A.G.Zohry recounts the evolution of policy in his 1997 publication put out by the Cairo Demographic Center: "Population Policies and Family Planning." In the 1930s, efforts consisted of awareness building and promotion of traditional methods by non-governmental agencies. In 1937, an official Fatwa (declaration) was published stating that the Islamic faith is not against the use of family planning. Government programs began in earnest in 1953 with the establishment of the National Commission for Population Matters and in 1962 the National Charter proclaimed, "Population increase constitutes a dangerous obstacle" to raising the standard of living for all. From 1965-1972 the government got involved in the Family Planning Services through government state health and social services outreach. From 1973-1984 these services became more organized and related to education, realizing that a demand for their services would be tied to the education of women. In the last 20 years, the Ministry of Health has taken on principal responsibility and successive presidents have chaired conferences and spoken out and the role of NGOs in terms of outreach and financial aid has been very strong. Zohry states that the percentage of women using any contraceptives has doubled from 24% in 1980 to 47.9% in 1995. The goal of the government is to reach replacement level fertility by 2016 and has increased its funding and support of family planning and health clinics. One hopeful new direction is to do this by switching the emphasis from family planning to reproductive health. It is more difficult for reluctant males to resist the call for better health care for their wives and children than to turn down family planning offers. However, paradoxically, as Ashraf M. Naguib points out in his article in the Middle East Times in June, 2004, the government has also played a major role in the increase of the population - "through heavy investment in health...better health care in rural areas and the major cities has improved life expectancy, along with a sharp fall in the infant mortality rate."

But Egypt's