Elderly Migration in Canada and the United States

Apocolyptic Demography is occurring and is visible in today's developed societies. Ongoing advances in health technology have led to a continuous increase in life expectancy, currently 77 and 82 for males and females respectively (2004 World Population Data Sheet). Furthermore, by enduring the last stage of the Demographic Transition we are experiencing low rates of fertility and mortality, which have led our nation to become an aging society. Population aging causes some place characteristics to grow in importance, while others decline in importance (Graves and Linneman 1979). The goal of this paper is to understand where seniors in Canada and the United States migrate to after retirement, and what factors accompany this decision-making process. The trends presented will parallel the Lifecourse Model introduced by Rossi in 1955 which states that residential mobility often arises in response to particular lifecourse events - specifically, retirement will be the focus here. Popular destinations, main types of migrations, other reasons for relocation, as well as personal attributes of this distinct population will all be examined in depth. Furthermore, the future implications of post-retirement migration and the saturation of attractive destinations will be discussed.

The retired senior, having just left the work force, and now fully rid of any attachments - this is the moment they have been awaiting. The obvious directions for this population are the Sunbelt destinations of Canada and the United States. In Canada, the majority of elderly migrate to the sunny, warm climate, coastal region of Victoria which is the city with the highest percentage of seniors. The second most popular location is the Niagara Region of Southern Ontario. In the United States, Florida has been the most important receiving state for the past three decades, followed by Arizona and California (Walters, 2002). Table 1 (Frey et al., 2000) shows the figures from 1985-90 of the greatest states of destinations for different categories of inter-state migrants. The totals display California in second place, but recent studies show that Arizona is rapidly becoming more popular and entering in to the second most important destination for senior migration (with California a close third). So why are these places so popular? A main reason has to do with the amenities offered there. Clark et al. (1996) distinguishes between unpopular retirement destinations and popular locales by the push and pull model. Cities with a low percentage of seniors have essentially "pushed" them away with such factors as high seasonal temperature variation, a high proportion of cloudy days, poorer air quality, and high tax rates. Welcoming "sunbelt" destinations offer hot summers with warmer temperatures throughout the year, and lower rates of violent crime. The former in this case encourages out migration while the latter advocates the in migration to a city, region, or state.

Popular destinations have been established, but why do seniors migrate to them after retirement? There are three main types of migrations that accompany this decision making process: amenity, assistance, and disability (Walters, 2000b). The first, the amenity migrants are those who move shortly after retirement to attractive locations which offer a warm climate, recreational amenities, and a lower cost of living (Haas and Serow, 1993). Other factors which have an influence on elderly migration are medical and health services offered, as well as the racial similarity effect which states that individuals seek to reside within racially or ethnically homogeneous environments (Newbold, 1996).

The second group of retired migrants is the assistance migrants, who are generally older and not recently retired. These seniors are the counter stream return migrants who are in search of kinship due to widowhood, bad health, or low income (Longino and Serow, 1992). The chances of becoming a return migrant increase with age, as do those chances of becoming a widow and developing a sickness. In the postindustrial era, mobility in response to declining health is quite common (Warnes, 1992a). With the onset of severe disability, we enter into the third and final group of elderly migrants. To this much older population, there is a decline in importance of amenities (Newbold, 1996) and lavishness, and institutionalization becomes the destination of this final relocation in ones life. It is possible that these elderly migrants live with kin, especially older children. However, most seniors choose institutionalized care at this age to maintain their autonomy. Most elderly believe that incontinence equals incompetence and do not want to be seen as dependent or a burden in the eyes of their children. Furthermore, at this stage in life, most seniors are widowed women and 2/3 of seniors living in homes are female (Northcoff lecture 2005).

Migration upon retirement is prominent in late-industrial societies (Warnes, 1992a), but what personal qualities determine who is a mover in search of amenities or in need of assistance? Migrants seeking agreeable amenities are generally those who can afford such a lifestyle. These are the healthy seniors with higher incomes and fewer ties to their origin community (Kallan, 1993). Many seniors feel that once they have left the work force, their children have moved away, and their friends passed on, that there are no inertial forces holding them in place. It has also been proven that seniors with a better education are more likely to migrate because they have the ability to collect and process information regarding potential destinations (Newbold, 1996). It makes sense that one would want to enjoy their last years of life with their spouse and move to a retirement location together, which is why amenity migrants are often married couples (Shin, 1990). Shin builds on the Lifecourse model and examines the interaction between seniors' personal attributes and destination place characteristics. He believes that amenity migrants follow a positive-shift migration stream, venturing from a place of low elderly net migration to a location of high elderly net migration.

Senior migrants in need of assistance are the frail, and moderately ill (Walters, 2000b). This group of elderly is generally poorly educated (Newbold, 1996), with a low income, and experiencing widowhood (Walters, 2000b). The effects of widowhood on mobility are immense and the odds of moving are twice as high in the year after widowhood as compared to the year before (Chevan, 1995). Regarding disability status, migration usually results from a recent increase in impairment as opposed to long-term health problems (Speare et al, 1991). Due to this onset of widowhood and/or disability, seniors are incapable of managing everyday activities