Election

No I don't think that either the Liberals or the Conservatives have any hope of winning a majority in the upcoming federal election. Quebec, which is a large province and holds 75 seats, will be won by the Bloc Quebecois, and neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives could ever win a majority there. To win a majority the Liberals need to add 22 seats to the 133 they now hold. The Conservatives would have to add 67 more MPs to the 98 they already have. In the Ipsos-Reid Polls it was said that 36% of Liberals had support, they typically need around 40% for a majority win. I think that the Liberals votes will be affected because of voter resentment over the sponsorship scandal.

The Liberal/NDP existed before in 1985 but instead I think the Liberals and Conservatives will unite before this is successful again. There will be a leadership fight but not another election. The Conservatives can't be seen as fully supporting the Bloc. They can't support the Bloc's strong desire to separate Quebec from the rest of Canada.

I think that the Liberal party is most likely to win the next election with a minority. They hold 36% of the support as seen from the Ipsos-Reid Poll. This is much above the support for the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 16%. Even though the Liberal party is suffering from the Gomery Report, the Conservatives led by Harper don't have enough respect or support and in the end don't have an equal chance.