Is Historical Clues More Important Than History Itself?

Good afternoon, ladies and gentleman. Today my topic is about the most important reason for studying history is not that knowledge of history can make us better people or a better society but that it can provide clues to solving the societal problems that we face today. I agree with this statement.

We all agree that people learn from past and so is our society. But there is a problem when learning from the past. The society is developing so fast that the problems we face today are much more sophisticated than they used to be. The technology we develop today will be out-of-date tomorrow. knowledge of history can not make sure us better people or a better society. As you see from this picture this is the old Shanghai, and it changes a lot after hundreds of years. So how can the knowledge we earn from the past help us tomorrow? How can we adapt ourselves in this changing world? Mr. Mark Twain gave us the answer two hundred years ago.

He said: History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

It is true that the society is developing all the time.

However, the new technology is always based on the former one, and the humanity is all the same. We always face the contradiction between limited resources and unlimited desires. Therefore, we may face the same problem our ancestors encountered, and we can benefit from their thoughts.

Let us take a look into the real estate industry. One thousand years ago, the famous poet 白居易 complained about the expensive houses in Chang’ An the capital of Tang dynasty.  Despite he was a middle-leveled officer, he still can not afford the house price and lived in rental property for over twenty years. Today, many of us are still under the pressure of high housing price and the government is still trying to lower the price. So how can we lower the price?

We can see that in Han dynasty, the government has already carried out purchase restriction and in Song dynasty, the low-rent home system was already mature and useful, our ancestors have shown us many examples of controlling house prices.

That is why we can use the experience from the past to inspire us today.

History also plays an important role in finance industry. We look at historical statistics when making policy, doing case study and mining data. As many of you have heard about the “tulip bubble” which is the first bubble recorded in financial market since the 17th century. At that time, the price of tulip is expensive and is a symbol of status. People in Holland buy tulip not for enjoyment, but to do investment. In 1635, one bunch of tulip worth 2000 gulden. One year later the price for one bunch of tulip tripled. Nobody would have expected the disaster happened in 1637 the tulip just worth nothing. The crazy tulip bubble has almost destroyed Holland financial status. Governments of all nations make new rules for the future market(期货市场) after learning from this crisis. One of the new rules is that the investor is required to pay security bond if there is fluctuation in investment. For example, the investor makes an agreement with the owner of the tulip stating that five dollars of deposit is required today for a formal transaction of a bunch of tulip at the price of fifty dollars in one month. If the price is estimated to be forty dollars, there is a risk that the investor will give up to buy on the agreed date. So there is a rule that allows the owner to charge another dollars as security bund to ensure that no matter the price of tulip increased or decreased, the tulip will be sold as the agreement. Some other rules are also aroused from historical financial issues, such as insider-dealing offence and market manipulating office are strictly forbidden.

The last way is about culture and art.

In the lone course of history, we developed fantastic technology, we build grand buildings. However, we are still human being. We and our ancestors have the same feelings. So in the art world and design industry, when you are tired of modern society, it is a nice idea to explore the ancient art.

Louis Vuitton started off as a luggage store in Paris in 1854 and is now a global status symbol. In the middle of the nineteenth century, trains and steam ships transformed transportation and opened the world to a new breed of travelers. Louis Vuitton understood the need for more practical luggage and strove to create products that were adaptable to all situations for the royal family. As you can see in the picture, trunks carrying Queen’s luggage are put on the coach. Louis Vuitton even designed a trunk to contain the silver dishes, silver knives and forks to make sure that the royal family can enjoy a luxury picnic in the countryside just as they do in the palace.