Program Evaluation and Review Technique (pert) Analysis

INDEX

1.        INTRODUCTION        2

2.        MODEL AND METHODOLOGY        2

3.        NETWORK DIAGRAM        3

4.        PATHS / PATH MEAN / CRITICAL PATH        3

5.        EXPECTED TIME        3

6.        VARIANCE        4

7.        PATH PROBABILITIES        4

8.        PATH PROBABILITIES        8

9.        DISCUSSION        8

10.        OTHER COMMENTS        8

11.        CONCLUSION        9

12.        REFERENCES        9

INTRODUCTIOnS:

This project  contains activities for planning  an engagement party and the activity time estimates. The aim of this project is to show which of the path is most efficient in executing the planning of an engagement party project within a specific time frame. The expectation, duration of this Project and required steps for the planning has been prepared in this study. PERT analysis is used to analyse the role of the project network in planning an engagement party. Before we could make the planning for this project we would have to follow the steps required firstly, the process of this project will have to start with a drawing of the network diagram based on AOA approach. After that we will determine the paths, expected time, optimistic time, pessimistic time, and most likely time, and variance, standard deviation to calculate probability of achieving this program within a specific time frame or period.

Model and methodology:

             Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a scheduling method originally designed to plan a manufacturing project by employing a network of interrelated activities, coordinating optimum cost and time criteria. PERT emphasizes the relationship between the time each activity takes, the costs associated with each phase, and the resulting time and cost for the anticipated completion of the entire project.

PERT is an integrated project management system. These systems were designed to manage the complexities of major manufacturing projects, the extensive data necessary for such industrial efforts, and the time deadlines created by defence industry projects. Most of these management systems developed following World War I.

PERT was first developed in 1958 by the U.S Navy Special Projects Office on the Polaris missile system. Existing integrated planning on such a large scale was deemed inadequate, so the Navy pulled in the Lockheed Aircraft Corporation and the management consulting firm of Booz, Allen, and Hamilton. Traditional techniques such as line of balance, Gantt charts, and other systems were eliminated, and PERT evolved as a means to deal with the varied time periods it takes to finish the critical activities of an overall project.

The Critical Path Method (CMP) is a mathematically based algorithm for scheduling a set of project and activities. It is an important tool for effective project management. Commonly used with all forms of projects, including; construction, software development, research projects, product development, engineering, and plant maintenance. Any project with interdependent activities can apply this method of scheduling. CMP developed in the 1950s by the US Navy.

Network diagram:

Creating a network diagram can be an involved process that begins after you've determined predecessors to your activity. Our network diagram is based on AOA model, which means the convention of designated activities, is determined by arrows. The total paths in our diagram are 10 paths.

              Figure 1 show that time estimations for each activity. For instance, the activity “a” has 3 time estimations which show that optimistic time is 10, most-likely time is 15, and pessimistic time is 20 to finish this project. And the activities for this project are shown.

Figure.1.

[pic 2]

In Figure 2, the critical paths for this Project which are a-c-d-h-i-o-q. Figure.2 also shows the expected time for each arrow, herewith expected time calculation and estimations which are shown in Table below. For this Project critical path represent the activities for this project

 Figure.2.

[pic 3]

paths, path mean and critical path:

The path mean is the total value of each path. Hereby, each path mean has been calculated and which have the largest value of the entire path’s mean. This is a sequence of activities that leads from the starting node to finishing node.