Real Estate Market Analysis

Table of Contents

Market Analysis

Forecast Population Growth to 2025 2

Housing Affordability, Average Sales Price and Growth 4

Housing Characteristics 6

Society and Ambiance 6

The age distribution 7

Types of households 8

Educational attainment 9

Economic Outlook 10

Unemployment Rates & Employment growth 10

Household income 11

Capital Improvement Program 12

Market Analysis

1. Forecast Population Growth to 2025

Collin County is one of about 3,141 counties and county equivalents in the United States. It has 847.6 sq. miles in land area and a population density of 704.5 per square mile.

Growth in population and employment is a primary reason for increased congestion in the Nation's metropolitan areas. The Country has grown in population and employment in recent years, and will most likely continue doing so. The 2000 Census revealed 281 million people living in the United States, which represents a 13.2 percent increase since 1990.

Some regions of the Country have experienced higher growth rates than others. In recent years, the U.S. population has undergone redistribution from the northeast and mid-west to the southern and western regions of the Country. The 2000 Census revealed a dramatic increase in Hispanic population of 57.9 percent from 1990 to 2000, compared to 13.2 percent for the total U.S. population. More than 75 percent of the Hispanic population lives in the west and south, this may account for Texas displacing New York as the second most populated state in the Country.

As a result, many southern and western regions of the Country grew at a rate two or three times faster than the national average, while many northeast and mid-west areas grew at a much smaller rate.

Entering 2005, Collin County's housing market is poised for long-term continued strength and growth. The region's cities are growing and new markets are emerging in the area offering growing retail and business establishment opportunities, as well as attractive places to live in proximity to Dallas. As you can see in Figure 1.1 Collin county's population has increased almost %56 since 1990.

Figure1.1

Collin County, TX

Population and Components of Change

Date Population %

Change Components of Change

Total

Population

Change Births Deaths Inter-

national

Immigration Net

Domestic

Migration

1991 279,114 5.7 15,078 5,835 1,287 751 8,729

1992 292,321 4.7 13,207 4,725 1,096 852 8,047

1993 310,668 6.3 18,347 4,863 1,102 700 13,199

1994 330,867 6.5 20,199 5,390 1,209 744 14,596

1995 352,738 6.6 21,871 5,872 1,307 1,272 14,792

1996 378,488 7.3 25,750 6,128 1,384 1,795 17,757

1997 408,371 7.9 29,883 6,517 1,450 1,732 21,256

1998 438,214 7.3 29,843 6,861 1,501 1,711 20,358

1999 468,620 6.9 30,406 6,683 1,490 1,800 20,485

2000 491,675 4.9 23,055 - - - -

2001 537,796 9.4 46,121 11,003 2,316 4,782 31,180

2002 568,950 5.8 31,154 9,379 1,898 3,826 19,309

2003 597,147 5.0 28,197 9,495 1,876 3,826 16,454

Source: U.S. Bureau of Census

This trend of rapid growth is expected to continue through the year 2025. According to 2030 demographic forecast prepared by the North Central Texas Council of Governments' (NCTCOG) Research and Information Services (RIS) Department in 2003, population for the DFW Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA) will grow by about 63 percent and employment by 64 percent, from 2000 to 2025.

Taking into account, this population growth and average persons per household estimates, over one million households will likely be added to the Dallas PMSA in the next three decades. If current trends continue, approximately 40 percent of these new households will be captured by Collin County, significantly driving the residential market in this region. In fact, 98 percent of all population growth in the PMSA is expected to be captured by the three county areas of Collin, Denton and Dallas.

2. Housing Affordability, Average Sales Price and Growth

As it is illustrated in figure 2.1, Collin County has the highest percentage of families that can afford median-priced homes in Dallas market and it is 14 present above the whole US market average.

Figure 2.1

Dallas Market Overview 2004

Housing

Housing Affordability - Fourth Quarter 2003

Percent of Households

That Can Afford

Median-priced Home THAI* THAI for

First-time

Homebuyers

Collin County 69 1.38 1.16

Dallas 56 1.09 1.05