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Objective:

My goal is to observe, analyse, and understand the patterns that tourism in our country goes through in terms of number of tourists. I am choosing foreign tourism, i.e. the number of foreign tourists visiting India yearly. After I gather raw data, I'll analyse it by taking averages, totals, various comparisons such as monthly, annual, and seasonal, and finally rounding it up with a tentative amateur prediction. I would also like to apply my mathematical skills to understand the pattern, defining the kind of graph or equation the patterns are based on (i.e. parabolic (quadratic equation based), curved (exponential equation based), linear equation based)

Observations of Raw Data:

The raw data I collected was from two different internet sources, one being slightly older. I found data for 2002 there, but 2004 data was provisional, and 2005 was incomplete. I found these on a different website, though 2005 data is still provisional.

Looking at the basic flow of my graph, tourism in India has been steadily increasing, almost having touched the 4 million point. On an average every year the rate of tourists has been increasing by various rates though the highest difference till now was 2003-2004, when the tourist number increased by 26.8%, which is high compared to 2002-2003's 14.3%, and last year's 13.2%.

The monthly analysis was pretty much as expected, as the tourist numbers take a dip in summer, though strangely they rush up in July. The highest are of course in winters. Monthly tourists also increase rapidly, as the average of year 2005, is almost double to that of 2002. The basic pattern of tourists monthly is pretty much the same. I made my graph of raw data (Chart 3.) a chart of every year's monthly tourists.

RAW DATA:

2002 2003 2004 2005

January 228150 274215 337345 386260

February 241133 262692 331697 389081

march 216839 218473 293185 367068

April 159789 160941 223884 260825

may 144571 141508 185502 229651

June 134566 176324 223122 258822

July 178231 225359 272456 292345

august 162594 204940 253301 270779

September 163089 191339 226773 252625

October 213267 260569 307447 328968

November 245661 290583 385238 415287

December 296474 319271 417527 463613

Increase per annum

2003-02 14.3

2004-03 26.8

2004-05 13.2

My Graphs and Analysis of Data

My first step is to make a comprehensive graph (Chart 1.) to show the very basics of TOTAL annual tourists for simple easy reference. I made a pie chart (Chart 2) to show how much every year has contributed in the total tourism, and as obvious in both, the tourism Stats have been increasing, and contribution is in ascending order.

Year No. of Tourists Contribution in total

2002 2384364 19%

2003 2726214 22%

2004 3457477 28%

2005 3915324 31%

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Next I went on to the monthly analysis; I already had a graph to show every year's monthly tourism. I decided to take out an average, showing how normally the tourism every month occurs (Chart 4.). A comprehensible pattern is seen