S&p Prediction

My prediction during the current bull market would remain optimistic for the year-end. I would say that the index might finish as high as 1800. With the QE and Fed economic policy pushback, I can't see the index going any other way. Analysts note that November through April has been the strongest six months of the year on average for almost any timeframe historically, especially with the holiday season coming up. I foresee sales across all industries during the busy shipping season and profits spilling all around. Looking back at S&P's index return over the past year I've also noticed that there were 3-month trends. There were patterns of the index going up for about a month or two, and then dropping over the next two years. Following this trend I think it is safe to say that the index has at least two more months of growth. They do say that correlation doesn't always equal causation, and that past history is not the best indicator of direction, I believe the market will finish the year off strong.

However, with the upcoming year, I think the market is due for a correction. The market and certain stocks have been performing at all-time highs, and I don't think the market can sustain this growth. I don't think there's much substance to the current growth either. I believe optimism and Federal intervention is what is driving the bull market right now. I don't think any investor has wanted to miss out on the current market, those selling short haven't been doing too well. However, I wouldn't bet against a short sell in the long-term.