The Decisive Stage of Balkan Civilisational Development

In the last decade of the 20th century, the Balkan region and the broader area of South Eastern Europe, a number of states with old traditions or new emerging transformations, have entered into a recurrent, historically decisive stage of their civilisational development. The characteristic parameters are:

* an exceptional dynamism, instability and contradictory processes, events and phenomena;

* noticeable and periodical ethnic - minority, confessional, territorial and other problems and contradictions which unfavorably influence the general stability of the region and mutual relations among the Balkan states;

* non - equality of the countries from the region regarding the guarantees of their national security which depends on whether they are members of the European and Euro - Atlantic economic and political structures and organizations or not;

* an imbalance in their arms and armed forces as a result of the accumulated differences in military and economic potentials of the states in the region and the old bioc approach to the composition and implementation of the agreements in this area;

* periodically tense socio - economic problems and crises, which have turned into a characteristic feature of the internal political situation in the states of the region;

* the strong aspirations of all countries in the region, bar none, towards an accelerated, full and equal integration into the European economic, political and military structures, combined with attempts at establishing and strengthening mutual confidence, cooperation and a general Balkan dialogue;

* the continuing geo-political restructuring, both relations to the political powers in the countries of the region and in the sub - regional and regional levels.

The basic factors from a political, economic, military and humanitarian point of view influencing the various components of the geo - political situation and security in the Balkans and South Eastern Europe at the end of the XX century, can be characterized by the fact that, in addition to their individual relevance, they most often occur in combination and are manifested with different strength and intensity in each Balkan State respectively.

From a political aspect, this group of factors has the strongest effect on the changes in the geo - political status quo and preserves its leading role at the present. Some of the more relevant factors among these are the following:

* A major change in the geo - political configuration of the region and the appearance of a number of new sovereign and independent states as individual subjects in international relations; a new formula emerged: 11+2 states in the region (until the beginning of the 90's when there were 6+1);

* Increased instability in the internal political sphere of the countries in the region, and in the relations of political powers and factors, which very often lead to sharp changes or essential corrections of their foreign-policy course, provoke mutual distrust and make the political behavior of a number of states less foreseeable;

* The continuing influence of certain unsolved disputes among some of the countries in the region and the strengthening of ethnic, religious, minority and territorial factors in the formulation and pursuance of their foreign policies;

* Strained mutual relations within the ethnicity - religion - state triad, which directly influences the stability of most Balkan states and the region as a whole;

* The simultaneous occurrence and influence of integrative and disintegrative processes and tendencies, both on a regional and continental level;

* The remaining serious or latent problems in the former Yugoslav territory as a sub - region of the Balkans ( like the conflict in Kosovo in 1998-1999 ), despite the initiated processes and activities following the implementation of the Dayton-Paris agreements;

* The intensified appearance of new-emerging non - military and non - standard risks and threats to the security of the Balkan states in particular and the region as a whole; the enormous increase in organized crime and the more and frequent acts of organized political, ethnical or religious terrorism, the non - sanctioned spread and traffic in drugs, weapons and technologies (here including weapons of mass destruction), manifestations of clerical extremism and fundamentalism, continuing ethnic - minority conflicts, aspirations toward cultural and historical heritages, activities of separatist and irredentist powers and political organizations, etc.

* The heterogeneous and multi - variant influence of the leading international factors on the development of the geo - political situation in the region; acceptance of intermediary services, use of methods and means of preventative diplomacy, "imposition of peace" (by force as well) and its maintenance through a massive military presence of a number of states, giving economic, humanitarian and military assistance, control and guarantees of preserving already achieved international agreements, coordinating functions after the realization of the post conflict recovery, etc.

From a military aspect, the changes which have occurred in relations among the armed forces of the states in the region, the increasing differences in the capacity and ability of the human factor and the modernization of the military potential, especially with regards to the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, have made the military aspects of the geo - political situation an important priority of the international community and the states in the region. Their relevance increased enormously after the disappearance of the bi - polar system of international relations and the termination of the bloc opposition in the region, the appearance of numerous crisis situations and conflicts of different intensity, the increased risks of a broad dimensioned confrontation, the widespread belief in seeking a new balance of powers under conditions of geo - political restructuring in the region. This group of factors includes the following:

* The obvious non - equality of the states in the region regarding the achieved guarantees of their security, sovereignty and territorial integrity, their military potential and the possibilities of their support and modernization, the degree of their presence and participation in European