The New Industrial Revolution

"Computers let us make more mistakes faster than anything in history except maybe handguns and tequila." Mitch Radliffe, 1992.

Few people remember Mitch Radliffe, nor really should they. And while there are no numbers to verify his hypothesis, that statement may be becoming a truism. There is no telling what's ahead as computers and their user-friendly technology become as commonplace in the home as an oven or a phone or a TV or stereo.

In fact, technology, with a reliance on Internet technology, will become all those things and more merged into one. And most, if not all of it, will be wireless. The Internet will become a shopping mall, grocery store, news source, and a way to renew your driver's license and handle a myriad of household chores. It is comparable to the way the Industrial Revolution that brought in the century we are now leaving changed our lives. That remarkable shift toward more leisure time can't touch what the Technology Revolution will do to change our lives.

"The Internet is already available from hand-held devices. We will see a day, probably in the foreseeable future, where you'll be driving home from work and you can start cooking your dinner," said Joni Kinsley, the head of marketing for Comcast Cable and formerly the director of its Web site for five years.

In Bill Gates' book, "The Road Ahead," he predicted the Internet would be used to shop, order food, contact fellow hobbyists or publish information for others to use.

"You will select how, when and where you wish to receive your news and entertainment," he wrote. "You will benefit from lower prices and the elimination of the middlemen that the network's friction-free marketplace allows. Your wallet PC will identify you at airport gates and highway tollbooths. Your children will tap a torrent of homework helpers."

But the road ahead still has somewhat low visibility on specifics. Going wireless is about the only thing people seem to agree is in the future. And when that happens, the sky -- including space -- is the limit, be it for good or ill.

"It will either be (wireless or) a single line into the home that operates the phone, gets the Internet, TV, clock, coffeepot, everything," said Terry Dugas, the associate director of instructional technology at Florida Gulf Coast University in Fort Myers. "You can literally do some of this now from a computer, but in 25 years people won't differentiate between any of these functions. It will be completely integrated."

Driven by demand

Getting there comes down to economics. While many scramble to find ways to profit on the Internet, one thing's for sure: The consumers are out there. Consumer demand for more -- and more quickly -- will push technological developments as competing companies vie for those customers.

With an estimated 200 million people hooked up to the Internet, growth since the World Wide Web came into existence in 1993 is nothing short of phenomenal.

It took radio 38 years to reach 50 million users. It took TV 13 years. It took the Internet four years. Of course, population increase -- which grew by 1 billion worldwide in the last 40 years -- has something to do with that. However, the ease of the technology from research to buying has much to do with that, too. A large part of that target is children.

In 1998, there were 4.5 million people younger than 12 online. By 2002, the prediction is 11 million children online.

The number of Web pages is growing with a speed nearly equal to that of usage. The number of hosts on the Internet roughly tripled from January 1994 to January 1996.

Though growth has remained exponential, it is slowing. The doubling rate in 1993 was less than 3 months, while today it is closer to six months, according to Matthew Gray, a self-appointed expert on Internet growth. Gray set up one of the first 100 Web servers in the world and built the Web site for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has done studies on domain names growth and IP addresses since 1993.

Buying is plays a huge role in the growth of the Internet. The growth of what has become known as e-commerce and e-tailing took center stage during the 1998 Christmas season -- as much for its failures as for its successes.

"In a long-term view, we've only reached the edge of the rainforest in relation to the Internet economy," said David A. Kuglar, the president of the Monument Internet Fund, an online mutual bond trading and Internet forecasting firm.

That firm estimates, and so does most of the industry, that 1999 holiday-season Internet sales will triple the previous year's $3 billion take. In all of 1998, the Internet generated $38 billion in online sales, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce's estimate.

Forrester Research, an Internet consulting firm, predicted Web retailers would ship about 230 million packages in 1999, the bulk during Christmas. Companies such as Etoys.com and PlanetRx.com already ship more than 1,000 packages a day; Amazon.com ships more than 10,000 parcels a day. Jupiter Communications, another Internet consulting firm, predicted some of these companies would reach close to 60,000 packages during the just-ended Christmas rush.

According to a survey done by AmericaOnline last summer of its 18 million subscribers, 10 million said they would do a lot of Christmas shopping online in 1999. Of those users, 4.7 million will be shopping online for the first time.

"In 10 to 15 years, the Internet will be the primary carrier of transactions. It's a natural extension, and it's efficient," said Alex Cheung, a portfolio manager at Monument Internet Fund. "Business will boom because it saves time and lowers costs."

One such entrepreneur, Rem Jackson, a co-creator of the Web sites for Connected Classroom and Connected University, understands that concept: "The Internet is not the be-all and end-all, but it is a profound tool."

E-commerce: Best yet to come

To be successful in the online world, businesse must understand what people want online. That information, of course, can be had online. The Web site Search Words.com shows in its most recent survey that the three most commonly used search words are "mp3," "sex" and "hotmail," in that order. So that shows entertainment (mp3 is a