Three Views of Population Growth

Scenario 1 - Disastrous

As the century began, natural resources are under increasing pressure, threatening public health and development. Water shortages, soil exhaustion, loss of forests, air and water pollution, and degradation of coastlines afflict many areas. As the world's population grows, improving living standards without destroying the environment is a global challenge.

Most developed economies currently consume resources much faster than they can regenerate. Most developing countries with rapid population growth face the urgent need to improve living standards. As we humans exploit nature to meet present needs, are we destroying resources needed for the future?

In the past decade in every environmental sector, conditions have either failed to improve, or they are worsening:

Ð'* Public health: Unclean water, along with poor sanitation, kills over 12 million people each year, most in developing countries. Air pollution kills nearly 3 million more. Heavy metals and other contaminants also cause widespread health problems.

Ð'* Food supply: Will there be enough food to go around? In 64 of 105 developing countries studied by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, the population has been growing faster than food supplies. Population pressures have degraded some 2 billion hectares of arable land -- an area the size of Canada and the U.S.

Ð'* Freshwater: The supply of freshwater is finite, but demand is soaring as populations grow and use per capita rises. By 2025, when world population is projected to be 8 billion, 48 countries containing 3 billion people will face shortages.

Ð'* Coastlines and oceans: Half of all coastal ecosystems are pressured by high population densities and urban development. A tide of pollution is rising in the world's seas. Ocean fisheries are being overexploited, and fish catches are down.

Ð'* Forests: Nearly half of the world's original forest cover has been lost, and each year another 16 million hectares are cut, bulldozed, or burned. Forests provide over US$400 billion to the world economy annually and are vital to maintaining healthy ecosystems. Yet, current demand for forest products may exceed the limit of sustainable consumption by 25%.

Ð'* Biodiversity: The earth's biological diversity is crucial to the continued vitality of agriculture and medicine -- and perhaps even to life on earth itself. Yet human activities are pushing many thousands of plant and animal species into extinction. Two of every three species is estimated to be in decline.

Ð'* Global climate change: The earth's surface is warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, largely from burning fossil fuels. If the global temperature rises as projected, sea levels would rise by several meters, causing widespread flooding. Global warming also could cause droughts and disrupt agriculture.

Scenario 2 Ð'- Hopeful

As the world's population continues to grow, improving living standards without destroying the environment is becoming less and less of a global challenge. As those less developed countries economies continue to grow, people are consuming fewer resources and they are now regenerating those resources faster than ever. The developing countries are continuing to improve living standards in their respective countries at faster paces than ever before.

In the coming decades, conditions are improving in greater ways and means:

Ð'* Public health: Cleaner water and improved sanitation are becoming more common place. Air pollution has greatly improved due to improvements in technology.

Ð'* Food supply: Once again, due to improving technology, there will be a greater supply of food for the entire global community. And with those lesser developed countries becoming more developed, they are more able to produce more of their own food for surplus.

Ð'* Freshwater: The demand for freshwater will become less and less of an issue. Improvements of filtration of groundwater and other water sources will lead to less interest in that of freshwater which will allow for decreasing shortages.

Ð'* Coastlines and oceans: Coastal ecosystems are less pressured by high population densities and urban development. Pollution is decreasing in the world's seas due to the improved sanitation. Ocean fisheries are prospering due to the improved measures that are taken to restock the once dwindling ocean resources.

Ð'* Forests: With improved technology, it is easier than ever to maintain and even improve on the amount of forestry. More trees are being planted and grown, while larger areas are being converted into new forests. As stated earlier, forests provide over US$400 billion to the world economy annually and are vital to maintaining healthy ecosystems. Future demands for forestry products will not even exceed 25% of consumption.

Ð'* Biodiversity: As stated earlier, the earth's biological diversity is crucial to the continued vitality of agriculture and medicine -- and perhaps even to life on earth itself. The global population has realized the importance of plant and animal species and has begun to reproduce those plant and animal species which were once on the verge of extinction.

Ð'* Global climate change: The earth's surface has begun to cool due to the lowered amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The global temperature will begin to decrease and sea levels would remain at a normal level. The once feared issue of global warming will become nothing more than a distant memory.

Scenario 3 Ð'- Wildcard

In this third scenario, I have decided to use for my wildcard the Global Abortion Act. Of course there is no such thing as the Global Abortion Act, so that is why I have created it for the third part of this project. The Global Abortion Act will come into existence in the year 2015. This act will make it legal for every woman throughout the world to have an abortion if she so desires. All governments have decided to implement this act into place to help fight the problem of global population growth.

Ð'* Public health: With this new act in place, there will be a decline in health problems overall due to the decreased amount of births. In past circumstances in which abortion is not against the law, abortion was not safe. This measure will help to prevent unnecessary deaths of women from unsafe abortion. This will also allow for a more balanced birth/death ratio.

Ð'* Food supply: Due to the decrease in population growth, there will be an abundance of available food to be distributed